 The days before the NFL season continue to draw near. Teams are in the heart of training camp and with preseason games happening, it won't be long before the regular season. There will be plenty of teams going in with different expectations compared to last year. Some of that has to do with their performance last year, while other teams have made significant roster changes. Here are my boldest takes for the upcoming season.
1. The Texans Will Clinch The AFC's One Seed The Houston Texans were undoubtedly the most surprising team last year. After winning a combined 11 games from 2020-22, they went 10-7 which clinched a playoff spot and the AFC South. They then defeated the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card before falling in the divisional round to the Baltimore Ravens. First year Head Coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud were most responsible for the turnaround. Stroud's rookie season is already regarded as one of the best of all time, as he won Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, he wasn't the only Texan to win a Rookie of the Year award. Defensive end Will Anderson won Defensive Rookie of the Year, making him and Stroud the fourth pair of teammates in NFL history to accomplish the feat. “With CJ, the thing that stood out from the skills standpoint is as we all saw him, he can put the ball anywhere he needs to in a very accurate manner,” Ryans said. “I think at that quarterback position when you have a calm demeanor and your teammates see that, it’s a confidence.” However, the Texans have not reached their full potential. Stroud, Anderson, and fellow third round receiver Tank Dell will continue to get better with more experience. They had a busy offseason fortifying their roster to compete for championship. On offense, they upgraded their running game with Joe Mixon and added Stefon Diggs to go along with Dell and Nico Collins. Houston also added to their defense with Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry, who have a combined 146.5 sacks, and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair who played for Ryans’ defense with the San Francisco 49ers. This is a team that has all the assets to finish the season as the AFC's number one seed. If CJ Stroud elevates his game as expected, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC could run through Houston. 2. The Atlanta Falcons Will Have A Top Five Offense While Houston exceeded expectations, the Atlanta Falcons have the foundation to become a juggernaut offensively. They used multiple top 10 draft picks on skill positions - Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson - who all showed potential but were held back by suspect coaching and mediocre quarterback play. However, there are two components that should change this. The first is hiring Los Angeles Rams’ defensive coordinator Raheem Morris as head coach. Although he comes from the defensive side, Morris brings in fellow offensive assistants from Sean McVay’s decorated system. The second is signing pro bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. Cousins has always been a steady passer and was in the midst of a career year for the Minnesota Vikings before tearing his ACL in week eight. If he recovers, the Falcons could have something special. Only four quarterbacks have a higher all-time completion percentage with at least 1,500 pass attempts than Cousins. He is especially known to heavily target his best offensive weapons, which should certainly benefit both London and Pitts. https://x.com/BleacherReport/status/1733951294141022512 https://x.com/NFL/status/1738987647882920187 Meanwhile, Robinson’s effectiveness in a zone-schemed offense bodes well in a system that once revolutionized football with various zone-running concepts. A strong offensive line anchored by center Drew Dalman and guard Chris Lindstorm will additionally provide many rushing lanes for Robinson along with time for Cousins in the pocket. https://x.com/NFL/status/1703468457356882147 3. Kyle Hamilton Will Win Defensive Player of the Year According to most experts, Kyle Hamilton of the Baltimore Ravens is arguably the best safety going into 2024. Although he earned this reputation in his second year, odds of winning Defensive Player of the Year aren’t in Hamilton’s favor. Only five players at the position have ever won the award. However, it is fitting that Hamilton’s play style resembles the last safety to win the award, Troy Polamalu. Like Polamalu, Hamilton excels wherever he lines up whether it’s at safety, slot cornerback, or linebacker. According to Pro Football Focus, Hamilton lined up at safety 390 times, slot cornerback 465 times, and linebacker 205 times. He stuffed the stat sheet with 81 tackles, three sacks, 13 pass deflections which led all safeties, and four interceptions with one going for a touchdown. Hamilton’s versatility resulted in a pro bowl and first team all-pro selection. “When you have a player like Kyle Hamilton, who does so many things so well, you want to get him in position to do all of those things,” head coach John Harbaugh said. More importantly, Hamilton played a major role on a Ravens team that had the AFC’s best record. His breakout season was a huge reason why Baltimore’s defense allowed the fewest points in football. It’s rare for a safety to be a difference maker at multiple positions and with the Ravens primed to make another huge playoff run, it’s possible a safety finally wins the award. 4. The 49ers and Rams Will Meet in a NFC Championship Game Despite the San Francisco 49ers narrowly losing the Super Bowl and the Rams making the playoffs, there wasn’t much drama to the rivalry compared to other seasons. However, an encore of the 2021 NFC Championship game which ended in a 20-17 Rams’ victory could be on the table. The 49ers will be hungry to finish the job and they have the talent to get back to the big game. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan oversees a talented offense featuring an efficient passing game with Brock Purdy, and a top ranked rushing attack led by Christian McCaffrey. Defensively, Nick Bosa is a scary sight for any quarterback while Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are as good of a linebacking duo as there is in the NFL. Chavarius Ward can match up against any number one receiver and a healthy Talanoa Hufanga will be valuable for the secondary. Meanwhile, the Rams enjoyed a resurgent season after experiencing a let down following their Super Bowl 56 win. Sean McVay’s passing attack was revitalized thanks to a fully healthy Matthew Stafford and the emergence of fifth round receiver Puka Nacua. Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp showed he was still capable of making an impact, and they also got a boost in the running game with Kyren Williams finishing third in rushing yards. While another championship meeting would feature new characters such as Purdy, McCaffrey, and Nacua, the stakes wouldn’t change. It would still produce a highly competitive and intense game between two old rivals.  This year’s NFL Draft featured a heavy dose of wide receivers and offensive lineman. With plenty of high prospects at both positions, only cornerbacks were a more highly coveted position than receivers and offensive tackles by the time the draft ended.
Throughout the first round, many teams went into the draft needing a receiver or an offensive tackle, one of the most important positions on the offensive line, going into the draft. While picking either position would’ve been understandable, it adds to the debate of whether general managers should draft skill positions or offensive lineman. On one hand, a team can’t function on offense without a group of players who can control the line of scrimmage. That being said, it’s important to have pass catchers in what has become a passing league. There is a valid argument for selecting either position, and it is worth looking at both sides. For offensive lineman, there is a better chance that selecting a lineman will be more beneficial in the long term. The career length of an offensive lineman is 3.75 years which is almost a full year above receivers who last 2.81 years, according to Statista. In addition, teams with a cornerstone offensive lineman will have more diversity on offense. They can effectively run the ball behind their all-pro tackle, something the San Francisco 49ers love doing with Trent Williams, or execute pass plays like the Dallas Cowboys. Teams can also afford to pass up a receiver, since they are usually talented options in the later rounds. The Los Angeles Chargers are one team that used this approach. Despite having a young star quarterback in Justin Herbert, they cut ties with most of their skill positions after a disappointing 5-12 season. In the first round, they selected all-world tackle Joe Alt from Notre Dame over drafting a receiver. Alt is arguably the most pro-ready prospect entering the draft, and is a perfect fit for a team that still wants to win now. He and fellow tackle Rashawn Slater will make it easier for Herbert to develop chemistry with his new receivers, such as Ladd McConkey and Brendan Rice who they later drafted. The New York Jets on the other hand, valued longevity up front when it came to their first round selection. Despite acquiring two established tackles in Tyrone Smith and Morgan Moses, they wanted more security at the position which led to them choosing Olu Fashanu from Penn State. Fashanu allowed one sack in his collegiate career, and although the Jets understandably want to win now with Aaron Rodgers turning 40 this December, he gives them a foundational piece in the long run. While it is important for teams to solidify their offensive line, there is also high demand for impact players at wide receivers. Many teams have become more pass-oriented over the years, and there is especially a need for playmakers after a year where the average points per game was second fewest in the last ten seasons. Teams are always looking for players who can be trusted by the quarterback, and in this year’s draft featured plenty of highly touted receivers such as Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, and Malik Nabers who were all top 10 picks. One team that particularly set out to upgrade their skill positions were the New York Giants. They were in a position where selecting either an offensive lineman or receiver would have been understandable, but they decided to prioritize the need for reliable receivers with Malik Nabers. Nabers has a knack for explosive plays thanks to his route running, and ability to get yards after the catch. They hope Nabers can fill a void at receiver that has been present since the team traded Odell Beckham Jr. five years ago. In my opinion, it's more sustainable to draft an elite offensive lineman. There’s a better chance a team ends up with a valuable cornerstone whereas receivers are seen as replaceable. Some of the league’s most decorated lineman such as Lane Johnson, Zach Martin, and Trent Williams have played more seasons for the team that drafted them. Even some of today’s bright stars at offensive tackle such as Penei Sewell have recently earned a big payday with others such as Tristan Wirfs waiting in line. There is also less margin for error if a team drafts a wide receiver over an offensive lineman. The Cincinnati Bengals were criticized when they drafted Ja’Marr Chase over Sewell, and while Chase’s potent chemistry with Joe Burrow led to a Super Bowl appearance, the Bengals have routinely had to retool their offensive line every offseason. As for the Lions who did take Sewell, they still managed to find an all-pro receiver of their own with Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth round. More often than not, drafting an offensive lineman will leave a team with fewer questions and more answers.   In a span of four months, the New York Times sports section has been disbanded and Sports Illustrated magazine appears to be on the verge of shutting down. Both moves can primarily be attributed to the rise of digital media which has contributed to these radical changes. But while people - myself included - have utilized digital media, it is still shocking to see two highly established print publications drastically change their operations.
Back in July, the New York Times announced that The Athletic, a sports website they purchased the previous year, would replace their daily sports coverage. It was devastating news for a department that is one of the most prominent sports writing industries. Although The Times' coverage of sports has changed over the years, this move was mostly frowned upon by long time readers for many reasons. One of them is the fact that it came at the expense of the writers who have spent years working for the sports section, and were some of the best sports journalists in the country. A few well known writers for the sports section include Harvey Araton, George Vescay, and the late Dave Anderson. Now most of the writers have to seek alternate jobs such as covering the business side of sports instead of playoff games, or even work for a new company. Although I might have not read The Times’ sports section as long as other readers have, it was easy to appreciate the writers who made it possible to visualize their stories about great players or games. Even if their stories were about topics I was following, they might have presented a perspective of the story that I didn’t think about. I had the privilege of attending a New York Times sports writing class involving Harvey Araton and Ken Belson, who are two writers from the sports section. Hearing stories about their previous assignments were incredible, and it made me more interested in developing my writing. They taught me numerous skills such as different ways to begin a story, and being able to provide the entire picture even if all the information didn’t favor the topic. Their advice enabled me to improve my writing skills in the two weeks taking that class. Sports Illustrated magazine is another prominent print news outlet that is on the verge of shutting down. From 1954 to 2018, Sports Illustrated was known for coming out with a new magazine on a weekly basis. But because of more people beginning to read news off the internet, the magazine transitioned to publishing biweekly. By 2020, that frequency was reduced to a monthly basis where it remained that way until this year. Accusations that they were posting articles with artificial intelligence serving as fake authors also put a black eye on the company's reputation. While Arena Group, which owns Sports Illustrated, has stated their intentions to not disband Sports Illustrated magazine, it's difficult to see any future continuation of the iconic magazine. There are no bigger losers in these transactions than the writers from these publications and fans who read their articles. Reading Sports Illustrated magazine was a hobby I enjoyed for years. It was fun getting the chance to read an in-depth article about an athlete's impact on their team's reputation, or the season preview for football. Their covers were also intriguing because they gave you an idea of what the subject for their main story. However, that wouldn’t have been possible without their iconic images. Whether it was a triumphant Muhammad Ali standing over Sonny Liston, LeBron James in his St. Vincent-St. Mary high school uniform, or even the cover of Brandi Chastain above the story, you don’t get journalism presented like that online. The internet has certainly changed in the world of sports journalism, and it's understandable that some organizations would want to explore changes into how they operate for their content to better suit the public. However, sports journalism was initially presented through newspapers, and while I agree with trying to evolve news publishing, I don’t think it should come at the expense of completely abandoning the traditional methods. If two well-known companies could change their way of distributing sports coverage, it feels like every other sports journalism outlet is fair game. Maybe both publications will ultimately discover a way to bring back the print journalism that defined them for so many decades. For now, all those respected journalists and readers who enjoyed their work suffer from these decisions.  There is officially no debate that the NFL's newest dynasty now belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs. Led by head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and tight end Travis Kelce, they have appeared in four Super Bowls in the last five years, winning three of them. Kansas City additionally became the first team since the New England Patriots in 2003-2004 to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
They managed to do it the hard way as they went through more rough stretches than usual during the regular season. As a result, they had to play two road playoff games before facing a San Francisco 49ers team that gave them everything they had in hopes of avenging their Super Bowl 54 defeat. Yet it still wasn't enough as the Chiefs forced overtime and then proceeded to score on a Patrick Mahomes touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman after a 49ers' field goal to begin the extra period. Kansas City's victory now puts them in the same company as other great teams in NFL history such as Vince Lombardi's Green Bay Packers of the 60s, the 49ers of the 80s, and the dynasty they succeeded, the New England Patriots with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Like all dynasties, the Chiefs possess a spectacular quarterback in Mahomes, but most dynasties usually have some unique aspect that made it great. This might include a tough defense, or a dominant run game. Here is what makes the Chiefs' stretch stand apart from the dynasties before them. The thing that makes the Chiefs' dynasty different is Reid's ability to utilize a creative style of play calling that doesn't resemble traditonal offensive schemes. With a heavy use of shotgun formation, run-pass-options, and pre-snap motion, the Chiefs have spent the last six years confusing opposing defenses. Their offense has allowed guys like Mahomes, Kelce, and former wide receiver Tyreek Hill to maximize their talents. They are not the first team to run most of their offense out of the shotgun. Most NFL teams have primarily operated from a shotgun formation at some point over the last decade or even before that. But the Chiefs have executed that scheme better than any other team that has applied it to their offense. Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter at quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have averaged 28 points a game while barely trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in passing yards. If there is any other dynasty they might resemble, it would be the San Francisco 49ers of the 80s. Their hall of fame coach Bill Walsh installed a pass-first offense known as the West Coast, which involved a short passing game. Reid, who is associated with Walsh's pedigree, used that scheme during his first coaching job with the Philadelphia Eagles. Although he didn't apply the system at the beginning with Mahomes, it started show up again in that offense as Mahomes' average depth of target was a career low 6.1 yards. The only difference is that the Chiefs use a shotgun formation a lot more than those 49er teams. However, Reid's offense would not be as efficient without Mahomes as his quarterback. He came out of Texas Tech with high upside and the Chiefs were willing to trade up in the draft to select him. Every year, he has proven to reward the Chiefs, earning two NFL MVPs as well as three Super Bowl MVPs. What is most impressive about Mahomes, is that he's achieving these accolades at a rate similar to Tom Brady. But whereas Brady embodied the traditional style of quarterback play through operating from the pocket and attacking mismatches, it's never clear what Mahomes is going to do. He adds a level of backyard football and improvisation that fits Reid's offense like a glove. One play he'll resemble Brady and make a perfect pass from the pocket to Kelce, and the next he'll make a spectacular deep throw on the run like another hall of famer, John Elway. This type of backyard football that the Chiefs exhibit, has never been executed this flawlessly before. There may have been a time where this style of play might have been viewed by critics as a system that could only function in college football. But as it turns out, if you have the right coach and the right quarterback, you can turn that scheme into a Super Bowl winning formula.  The NFL Playoffs are the time of year everyone waits for during football season. This year's playoff field may not be as open compared to other years but then again, anything can happen in the playoffs. At the top of the standings are the Baltimore Ravens and San Fransisco 49ers, who both appear to be locks for the Super Bowl. Let's see if any other team could take their place.
AFC Wildcard: #2 Bills over #7 Steelers Pittsburgh was already going to have a difficult task playing the Bills on the road with Mason Rudolph starting at quarterback, but the loss of edge rusher TJ Watt might hurt even more. The Steelers are 1-10 when he doesn't play. Meanwhile, Buffalo is one of the hottest teams entering the playoffs having won five straight games. Josh Allen will have plenty of time to throw and the Bills will cruise to an easy win. #6 Dolphins over #3 Chiefs The Chiefs have not looked like defending champions, and even with the home field advantage, the Dolphins are going to shock people. Miami's defense may be injured, but the Chiefs also have their worst receiving core in the Patrick Mahomes era. This is also the same Dolphins team that nearly beat Buffalo last year on the road without Tua Tagovailoa. With him at full health, an upset might occur. #5 Browns over #4 Texans The Texans have been the league's biggest surprise this year thanks to CJ Stroud's outstanding rookie season, and DeMeco Ryans looking like the Coach of the Year. However, the Browns have also exceeded expectations even with injuries to their offense. While it remains to be seen if Joe Flacco's resurgence continues, their defense led by Myles Garrett will suffocate Houston's offense. Divisional: #1 Ravens over #5 Dolphins Lamar Jackson will have his first career playoff game with no turnovers as he'll spread the ball around to the likes of Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and Odell Beckham Jr. Baltimore's star studded secondary led by Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton will do enough to neutralize Miami's playmakers. It may not be a blowout like when both teams met three weeks ago, but Baltimore will still win convincingly. #5 Browns over #2 Bills Great defenses show up in the playoffs, and that's what Cleveland's defense is going to do against Buffalo. The key to this game will be the matchup between Buffalo's receiving core, and Cleveland's secondary. If Denzel Ward and co. can shut down the likes of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, life for Josh Allen will be miserable. His turnover problem will hurt Buffalo as Cleveland makes its first championship game since 1989. Championship: #1 Ravens over #5 Browns This game would involve so many headlines from Joe Flacco facing his former protégé Lamar Jackson, to the Browns playing in the location where their original franchise relocated. It's gonna be a classic defensive slugfest, but the Ravens' offense do just enough thanks to their high powered rushing attack. As for Flacco, he will struggle with Baltimore's strong pass rush. NFC Wildcard: #3 Lions over #6 Rams The Rams are going to give Detroit a scare in this game. Matthew Stafford will be amped up to play his former team, and if Cooper Kupp can match the production of other playmakers in Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua, the Rams will have a chance to win. However, Detroit's crowd has been waiting for a home playoff game since 1993. It will be hard seeing the Lions let such a passionate fanbase down in what will be an electric atmosphere. #2 Cowboys over #7 Packers The Packers have surprised a lot of people by making the playoffs in Jordan Love's first season as the starting quarterback. However, their luck will run out against a talented Cowboys team. Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb will be on their A game throughout the contest. The Packers will put up a decent fight, but Dallas is going to be too much for them. #4 Buccaneers over #5 Eagles When a team that has nothing to lose faces a team with everything to lose, chances are the team with nothing to lose prevails. The Eagles are certainly more talented against the Buccaneers, but they are really slumping. Some of their losses have came against teams with nothing to play for. Tampa Bay on the other hand, has racked up impressive wins as of late, which will continue against the defending NFC champs. Divisional: #1 49ers over #4 Buccaneers This is not going to be a contest. I see the 49ers winning this game through the air as Brock Purdy will take advantage of Tampa Bay bottom five pass defense. Purdy will throw for three touchdowns with two of them being to George Kittle. On defense, their vaunted pass rush led by Nick Bosa will give Baker Mayfield little time to throw en route to a dominant outing. #3 Lions over #2 Cowboys The Lions might have lost to Dallas not long ago, but had the referees declared Taylor Decker as eligible, they would've had a statement victory. They're going to be pumped up to play the Cowboys again, and it'll show throughout the game. Detroit's ground game led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will keep the Cowboys' potent offense off the field. Championship: #1 49ers and #3 Lions Unlike the last two years where the 49ers lost the NFC Championship game on the road, this time they will enjoy the luxury of hosting the game. Christian McCaffrey will have a big performance on the ground, wearing out the Lions' defense. Defensively, they will force Jared Goff to be one-dimensional. After the disaster in Philadelphia the previous season, San Fransisco will be eager to avenge that loss. Super Bowl 49ers over Ravens Like the last time both teams met in the Super Bowl, this will be a competitive game with both teams struggling to gain ground over the other. Baltimore might have dominated the 49ers at their own stadium in front of a national audience earlier in the season, but it's hard to see head coach Kyle Shanahan get out-schemed again. Christian McCaffrey will be more of a focal point as he'll cement his legacy as one of the best running backs of his generation. As for the 49ers they finally exorcise recent playoff demons, and tie the Steelers for the most Super Bowl wins with six.  It is well known that quarterback is the toughest position for anyone in sports. They are responsible for guiding the offense every game and must know where all 21 other positions are for each down. Their decisions on each play dictate the flow of the offense, and they have to make them with opponents looking to hit them every play. With how steep these requirements are, it is understandable that some rookie quarterbacks initially experience some growing pains.
However, there does come a quarterback like Dan Marino or Justin Herbert who already proceeds to look like a polished veteran. Fourteen weeks into the season, CJ Stroud of the Houston Texans has been on that same trajectory. Once seen as a rebuilding team, the Texans are in the heat of the race of an AFC wild card spot, and Stroud is a major reason why. With the individual and team success Stroud has enjoyed, it is worth evaluating where his year stands with some of the other great seasons by rookie quarterbacks. From a statistical perspective, there's not one statistic where Stroud doesn't look impressive. While he is fresh off his worst outing against the Jets, he's thrown for 3,651 yards and 20 touchdowns. Stroud might not be able to shatter Herbert's rookie record of 31 touchdown passes, but he is likely to set a new mark for most passing yards by a rookie with Andrew Luck's 4,374 yards standing in his way. Needing only 723 yards, it's a safe bet Stroud will shatter that record even if he stays in concussion protocol following a head injury he suffered last week. As if that's not impressive enough, Stroud is leading the league in passing yards while managing to protect the football, throwing just five interceptions. Another important factor that should be talked about in discussing quarterback's rookie seasons is their role in the offense. There are a few rookie QBs who might have had a good year and won games, but that was more because of a great defense or a run first offense. A great example of this is Ben Roethlisberger, who won every regular season game his rookie year but played on a team that ranked last in pass attempts and second in rushing attempts. Meanwhile, the Texans have asked Stroud to do a lot more, with their rushing attack ranking in the bottom tier for most statistical categories. Their offense may not be in the top tier in pass attempts, but any football fan would know that Houston's offense revolving around Stroud. It's also not like the Texans are having him throwing these short passes in fear of possibly turning the ball over and losing his confidence. They fully trust Stroud to lead them down the field, which is evident in his 8.5 yards per completion. Head coach DeMeco Ryans, who also deserves credit for Houston's turnaround, re-iterated this notion of the team's faith in Stroud following his first comeback win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. "I think trust is earned and C.J. has earned that trust by showing it on the practice field, proving it to his teammates, and you build that trust over time," Ryans said. "C.J. has built that trust amongst his teammates, amongst the coaching staff that we can put a little bit more on him.” That game particularly shows you all you need to know about Stroud. On the winning pass, he reads the safety Dee Delaney the entire play. When Delaney commits to receiver Noah Brown, Stroud zips the pass down the middle to fellow rookie receiver Tank Dell for the win. https://x.com/NFL/status/1721277034360721794?s=20 Then there's the fact that Stroud has helped engineer one of the league's best turnarounds this season. Before the arrivals of Stroud and Ryans, the Texans had won a combined 11 games in three seasons. Now the Texans have been reeling off one signature win after another with some of Stroud's performances. In my opinion, Stroud's season is reminiscent of Andrew Luck in 2012 where he turned the Colts from a bottom dweller to a playoff team overnight. Robert Griffin III, the guy who actually who actually won the award over Luck, wasn't shy to shower Stroud with praise four weeks into the season. "CJ Stroud isn't just the Texans' franchise quarterback," Griffin said. "He's a top ten QB in the league already." In addition, Stroud is elevating the players around him. Nico Collins has went from a seldom used receiver to a reliable number one option who already topped 1,000 receiving yards. Dell also formed a potent rookie connection with Stroud although that will unfortunately be put on hold after Dell suffered a fractured fibula in last week's win over Denver. The Texans are currently just outside of a wild card spot with their week two loss to the Colts being the difference. Despite a blowout loss to the Jets, most of the other teams ahead of them didn't gain much ground. Houston also has a soft schedule before getting another crack against the Colts in the final week. If Stroud clears concussion protocol, there is a good chance Houston sneaks into the playoffs. When the playoffs begin, we might be giving even more praise to Stroud's season. Note: Majority of this article was written before Stroud's head injury against the Jets.  The story of the New York Jets' season has been well known up to this point. After a season in which they saw young players such as defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and running back Breece Hall establish themselves as significant long term pieces, they went all in by acquiring future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. With quarterback being the team’s most glaring offseason need, many believed this move would not only help the Jets break their 12 year playoff drought, but catapult them into contention.
Unfortunately, Rodgers only saw four snaps in their season opener before suffering a torn ACL injury. The Jets therefore had to trot out their former first round pick Zach Wilson who wasn't far removed from being relentlessly booed the previous season. To the team's credit, they managed to win that game as well as three other contests, but now their season is slowly sinking. With the team having eight games to make a playoff push, one must wonder how much a healthy Rodgers would change. One thing that's for sure is he would change the team's production on offense. Even without Rodgers, the Jets have still managed to be competitive thanks to their defense which is loaded with contributors at almost every position. They also neutralized high-powered offenses like the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles which is why they are still in position to make a run toward the playoffs. The offense has unfortunately been another story. So far, the Jets' offense has scored eight touchdowns despite playing in nine games. Their most recent touchdowns occurred in week six when the Eagles let Breece Hall score in the final minute, and following their bye week against the Giants where Hall turned a two yard checkdown pass into a 50 yard score. This unit was supposed to take a huge step with Rodgers, and the Jets built their entire playbook, roster, and coaching staff around him. But because of his injury, the team has changed their entire approach on offense to benefit Zach. Even with Hall in the backfield, defenses are keying in on the run and their passing game has not done enough to keep opponents honest. It's reasonable to think the Jets would be a much more balanced unit on offense with Aaron Rodgers. His presence alone would give more opportunities for Hall to make big runs and then if defenses are playing the run, Rodgers would have plenty of chances to connect with Garrett Wilson. More importantly, their record would look a lot different with Rodgers. The Jets' defense has held opponents to less than 20 points a game, and it's hard to believe a Rodgers-led offense would not be capable of averaging more than 20 points. He may be 40 in a few weeks but Rodgers is the type of player who can elevate others around him. A healthy Rodgers likely would have guided them to wins in all of their one score losses against the Patriots, Raiders, and Chiefs - although that game was the team's best offensive performance. Instead they've had to ponder the what-ifs. But when a team's starting quarterback goes down, it will likely reveal many flaws and this has been the case with the Jets. As mentioned, they have only scored eight offensive touchdowns this season and while this number would look a lot better with Rodgers, that's not excusing some of their self-inflicted wounds. The Jets' offense often struggles in situations that most teams capitalize in. Their red zone and third down offense particularly ranks dead last in both categories. Most of this is a combination of bad play calling, poor execution, and a lack of discipline. The penalties have especially been a problem as the last two games have seen the Jets rack up 12 offensive penalties, which includes a holding call that negated a Breece Hall touchdown from last week. That comes down to offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett. He was signed because of his work with Rodgers in Green Bay, but has struggled without him before as seen in Denver and it's happening again. From a personnel standpoint, there is also a lot to be desired. They have not done a good job with their plans at backup quarterback. Zach Wilson needed this season to watch from the sidelines and while he's had a few decent games, signing a more experienced backup like Teddy Bridgewater would have been a better option. They look scared to put Wilson in positions to make big plays when they have a small lead, such as the Raider game where they didn't throw downfield until they were trailing. Other issues include going into the season with a 38 year old Duane Brown at left tackle. He started only two games before a hip injury landed him on injured reserve. Allen Lazard - a signing meant to bring in Rodgers - has struggled to compliment Garrett Wilson with bad penalties and dropped passes. While I believe Rodgers will certainly make a difference once healthy, the Jets can't simply run it back in 2024 regardless of what happens this season. They must address their weak links regarding tackle and receiver, along with having a better backup plan in case Rodgers suffers another injury. There is some hope Rodgers will come back during the season. He claims to have made significant progress during his rehab and expressed confidence in a return during mid-December or even earlier. The question is whether it will be worth it depending on the Jets' playoff chances at that point. If things don't change in the coming weeks, Rodgers might be better off waiting until next year.  Halfway into the NFL season, there have already been plenty of ups, downs, and surprises. Just ask me how eventful this year has been as a Jets fan. Yet among the headlines that emerged through the first eight weeks, I paid close attention to some of the predictions I previously made for both the AFC and NFC. While the jury is still out for these predictions, that doesn't mean they aren't worth assessing at the season's midpoint. Here are my grades for the preseason predictions I made back in August.
AFC Edition: 1. Justin Herbert Will Win MVP: B Herbert's enjoying another strong season so far. In his fourth year with the Los Angeles Chargers, he's thrown for 1,800 along with 13 touchdowns, while only turning the ball over four times. His ability to make perfectly accurate throws while also providing off-script plays has been on display multiple times, like in this sequence against the Tennessee Titans. https://twitter.com/chargers/status/1703468300770955646 Unfortunately wins are a factor in the MVP race, and some of Herbert's performances like the one against Tennessee, came in a losing effort. The Chargers are currently 3-4 and it also hasn't helped that a fractured finger has somewhat hindered a few of Herbert's most recent outings. He did rebound with a three touchdown outing on Sunday Night against the Bears. To get in the MVP race, he'll need to have similar performances. 2. The Jaguars Will Make The AFC Championship Game: A- After a 1-2 start, the Jacksonville Jaguars have picked up from where they left off last year winning their last five games. The most impressive part about their winning streak, is that Trevor Lawrence is even not the main reason why. Lawrence's numbers are still solid this year, but it's the strong running of Travis Etienne and a slowly emerging defense that are the catalysts for Jacksonville's 6-2 record. Etienne is currently third in rushing with 583 rushing yards, and has also shown improvement as a receiver where he's only 50 yards from exceeding last year's total of 316 receiving yards. https://x.com/NFL/status/1713609732064530929?s=20 Their defense has been able to repeat last year's formula of generating takeaways as they lead the league in that category. Darius Williams and Andre Cisco each have three interceptions and Josh Allen (the defensive end) already has nine sacks. These players have played a key role in holding opponents to under 20 points a game. 3. Sauce Gardner Will Win Defensive Player of the Year: D This grade has nothing to do with Gardner's performance so far. The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year is proving that his rookie season was no fluke. As of now, Gardner has allowed just 19 catches for 155 yards. He's a big reason why the Jets' defense has kept the team in the playoff hunt despite losing Aaron Rodgers to a torn ACL on their opening offensive possession. The reason why I'm giving this prediction a D is because interceptions are a big factor in cornerbacks winning Defensive Player of the Year. Gardner has only been thrown at just 25 times. Having played six games that's on pace for 66 times this season. While Gardner has still had some opportunities such as a potential pick six that he dropped against Dallas in week two, it's impossible for anyone to record multiple picks if they're hardly targeted. NFC Edition 1. Micah Parsons Will Finish With 20 Sacks: C+ Make no mistake, Micah Parsons is still having another great season. He's often in the backfield every game and if Parsons isn't making plays, chances are he's creating opportunities for other players. He won Defensive Player of the Month for September, and his play has only continued to be praised from other players such as future hall of famer Aaron Donald. "I've watched him play fast," Donald said. "He does a good job of just playing relentlessly, playing fast, and always finding a way to be around the ball." https://x.com/NFL/status/1703541493959410036?s=20 Parsons has also registered six sacks in seven games which is really good by all means. But with the regular season being halfway over, Parsons still has a lot of work to do in order to finish with 20 sacks. It's not impossible, given Parsons is such a dominant force but he'll need to have either a full sack in almost every game, or a few outings with multiple sacks. 2. The Lions Will Break Their Winless Playoff Streak: A This is looking like my most realistic prediction so far. All that hype surrounding the Detroit Lions before this year has come to fruition through the first eight weeks. Their 6-2 start is the best since 2011 and while that team had Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, this team is much better. Like the 2011 team, they also boost a potent QB-WR duo in Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but this year's team has a much better run game led by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Their defense is also a lot better thanks to Aiden Hutchson's strong sophomore campaign and an improved secondary that's allowed far less passing yards compared to last year. What's particularly impressive, is the Lions are no longer a dark horse to make the playoffs and they're still finding ways to win. This postgame speech from head coach Dan Campbell after upsetting the defending champion Chiefs on opening night should tell you everything you need to know about where this team's confidence level is at. https://twitter.com/Lions/status/1700040943838069136 3. Justin Fields Will Throw Over 4,000 Yards With the Bears investing a lot into building around Justin Fields heading into 2023, expectations were high for Fields to solidify himself as the Chicago Bears' franchise quarterback. But this year has been a rough one for the most part. Fields hasn't done much to prove his case. He tends to stare down receivers even if they aren't open which causes his progressions to take longer. Even when Fields does see an open man downfield, he's sometimes hesitant to throw to them. https://x.com/NFLFanzine/status/1704798033827815448?s=20 Although Fields' last two full games did show improvement, that was halted by an injury early in their week six loss against the Vikings. At 1,201 yards through six games, Fields needs a number of 300 plus yard outings to exceed 4,000 yards and many more winning performances to prove he can still be the quarterback of the future.  Every football season is guaranteed to have a few unexpected events that occur for various reasons. While fans often make predictions before the season, there are plenty of developments waiting to happen. Some storylines such as Geno Smith's resurgent season, will last the entire year, while others such as the Jacksonville Jaguars' late run into the playoffs, might last around a month. With five weeks remaining before the season, it's only appropriate to make a few hot takes going into this season.
Note: This article is part of a doubleheader that will also include NFC predictions. 1. Justin Herbert Will Win MVP In just three years with the Los Angeles Chargers, Justin Herbert has already cemented himself as a franchise quarterback. He set numerous rookie records and since then, he has thrown the fourth most touchdowns among active players since 2020. Last year saw Herbert guide the Chargers to their first playoff appearance thanks to a late surge at the end of the season. Although the season ended in a shocking collapse to the Jaguars, big things are on the horizon for Herbert. I think he's not getting enough attention as a possible MVP candidate going into next season. Granted it's hard to earn recognition with Patrick Mahomes in the division, but there's a good chance Herbert will win the award. The first reason is that while Herbert might be a top 10 quarterback, he still has plenty of potential. It's worth mentioning he's only 25 years old, and likely has plenty of spectacular years ahead. Herbert will also not have to worry about playing for a new contract, as the Chargers extended him for five years and $260 million. In addition, Herbert, along with his supporting cast will be a lot more healthy going into next season. Herbert played every game but some of those were with fractured rib cartilage. It also didn't help that besides Austin Ekeler, Herbert dealt with injuries to most of his receivers as well as the offensive line for much of the year. This season, the offense should be healthier and a little younger with the selection of receiver Quinton Johnston. 2. The Jaguars Will Make The AFC Championship Game After winning a combined four games in the previous two years, the Jacksonville Jaguars are now way ahead of their rebuild following a stunning division title, and a thrilling comeback win in the wild card round. The centerpiece of their success is Trevor Lawrence who took a significant step in becoming the franchise quarterback the Jaguars envisioned him to be. Lawrence threw for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, while leading the Jaguars to a five game win streak en route to their first playoff berth since 2017. However, Lawrence isn't doing it all by himself. He has a talented group of skill positions, which includes wide receiver Christian Kirk and running back Travis Etienne. Both players totaled over 1,000 yards from their respective positions. The receiving group, will be more dangerous with Calvin Ridley coming back from a year long suspension for gambling. Ridley might be rusty at first, but with Kirk, Etienne, and Evan Engram also requiring attention from opponents, it won't be long before he shakes off any rust. Defensively, the Jaguars aren't suffocating but they force plenty of turnovers. With an up and coming secondary, Jacksonville was tied for fourth in takeaways last season. They could make an even bigger jump if Devin Lloyd and Travon Walker begin to emerge as focal points during their sophomore year. Despite their late run, this team is still somewhat under the radar but that should change. Every rebuilding team eventually puts it all together, and the Jaguars already managed to successfully do that. Now they will be off and running. 3. Sauce Gardner Will Win Defensive Player of the Year A big part of the New York Jets' improvement on defense last year, was the amazing season from Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner. While I might be biased in saying he had arguably the greatest rookie season for a cornerback, it's hard to argue against it. Gardner played at a high level against some of the top receivers in Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson. By the end of the year, Gardner had only allowed one touchdown pass and led the league in pass deflections. He was awarded with a pro bowl selection, first team all-pro, and defensive Rookie of the Year. While Gardner had a decent case to win Defensive Player of the Year, recording just two interceptions was a big reason why he didn't get more votes. In Gardner's defense, most quarterbacks didn't target him much, but that's unfortunately something the voters don't always look at. That being said, it doesn't mean that Gardner will never get interceptions. He is still very young and will only continue to improve from his rookie campaign. "You always have something to work on. I got a lot of things I can work on that's going to get better coming into my second season," said Gardner about elevating his performance. Plenty of shutdown cornerbacks still proceed to get a solid number of picks each year, and that should certainly be the case with Gardner. Like last year, Gardner will once again be tested with Hill and Stefon Diggs two times each, along with other premier receivers such as Ceedee Lamb and Davante Adams. If Gardner continues to shutdown opponents and finish with around five picks, he should be one of the favorites to win the award.  Every football season is guaranteed to have a few unexpected events that occur for various reasons. While fans often make predictions before the season, there are plenty of developments waiting to happen. Some storylines such as Geno Smith's resurgent season, will last the entire year, while others such as the Jacksonville Jaguars' late run into the playoffs, might last around a month. With five weeks remaining before the season, it's only appropriate to make a few hot takes going into this season.
Note: This article is part of a doubleheader that will also include AFC predictions. 1. Micah Parson Will Register At Least 20 Sacks Ever since the Dallas Cowboys drafted linebacker Micah Parsons with the 12th pick, he's been nothing short of a home run selection. In his first two years, Parsons already has an impressive resume that includes first team All-Pro selections in each year, as well as defensive Rookie of the Year. With unbelievable physical gifts along with a motor that keeps going, Parsons is always around the football. He'll chase down a running back for a loss of yardage on one play, and then get a strip sack on the next play. Throughout his first two seasons, the Cowboys have used him more as an edge rusher than an inside linebacker which was his position at Penn State. This was especially evident last year where he played 81% of defensive snaps at defensive line compared to 18% at linebacker. Although he didn't play off the edge in college, Parsons has already adapted really well to his new position, finishing with at least 13 sacks in each of his first two years. Dallas will continue to move him around, but it is likely Parsons' snaps as an edge rusher will continue to increase. Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising to see Parsons finish with at least 20 sacks in 2023. 2. The Lions Will Break Their Winless Playoff Streak After plenty of mediocre years for the Detroit Lions, they finally have reasons to feel optimistic after a strong 8-2 finish. Although it wasn't enough to snap their six year playoff drought, head coach Dan Campbell appears to have a set real foundation that should not only carry over into next year, but lead them to their first playoff win in 31 years. Their offense is a very balanced unit that can excel through the ground and the air. Quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown established themselves as one of the more consistent QB-WR duos in the NFC. The front office might have tinkered a bit too much with the running game, as they cut ties with both of last year's running backs. Fortunately, with guys like Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow anchoring one of football's best offensive lines, they should still have a solid run game. Defensively, the Lions have a young, talented group of pass rushers in Aiden Hutchinson and James Houston who both combined for 17.5 sacks despite Houston playing only eight games. Assuming he stays healthy next season, he and Hutchinson could be a nightmare for opponents to block. Detroit also made many signings to improve the secondary with last year's co-interceptions leader, CJ Gardner Johnson, being the best of the bunch. Given the Lions also play in a conference that doesn't have many other serious threats besides the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers, they are in the driver's seat to finally end their long drought. 3. Justin Fields Becomes The First Bear To Eclipse 4,000 Passing Yards Playing quarterback for the Chicago Bears is usually not an ideal situation. Chicago has struggled to find an answer at quarterback whether it's bad contracts or poor draft selections. There is hope however that things might be looking up at the quarterback position with Justin Fields entering his third year. Fields was a decent passer last year, but it was his running that took a huge leap. From designed quarterback runs to improvising on a weekly basis, Fields easily rushed for over 1,000 yards. This year however, Fields will make significant strides as a passer. He showed some flashes last season, and the Bears have tried to build off that. They made it a priority to construct their offense to be more pass-happy compared to last year where they ran the ball more than any other team. Chicago was able to upgrade their offensive line and receiving core thanks to a trade with the Panthers, which allowed them to move down and select offensive tackle Darnell Wright. They also acquired wide receiver DJ Moore in the trade, who has a few 1,000 yard seasons and should form great chemistry with Fields. With Wright and free agent signing Nate Davis boosting the pass protection, Fields and Moore will have plenty of opportunities for big plays. Count in the fact Fields will be entering his second year in the same system, and a 4,000 yard season is likely. |
Date Published
August 2024
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