A Familiar Championship Matchup? New Number One Seed? Top NFL Predictions

The days before the NFL season continue to draw near. Teams are in the heart of training camp and with preseason games happening, it won't be long before the regular season. There will be plenty of teams going in with different expectations compared to last year. Some of that has to do with their performance last year, while other teams have made significant roster changes. Here are my boldest takes for the upcoming season. 

1. The Texans Will Clinch The AFC's One Seed 
The Houston Texans were undoubtedly the most surprising team last year. After winning a combined 11 games from 2020-22, they went 10-7 which clinched a playoff spot and the AFC South. They then defeated the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card before falling in the divisional round to the Baltimore Ravens.

First year Head Coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud were most responsible for the turnaround. Stroud's rookie season is already regarded as one of the best of all time, as he won Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, he wasn't the only Texan to win a Rookie of the Year award. Defensive end Will Anderson won Defensive Rookie of the Year, making him and Stroud the fourth pair of teammates in NFL history to accomplish the feat. 

“With CJ, the thing that stood out from the skills standpoint is as we all saw him, he can put the ball anywhere he needs to in a very accurate manner,” Ryans said. “I think at that quarterback position when you have a calm demeanor and your teammates see that, it’s a confidence.”

However, the Texans have not reached their full potential. Stroud, Anderson, and fellow third round receiver Tank Dell will continue to get better with more experience. They had a busy offseason fortifying their roster to compete for championship. On offense, they upgraded their running game with Joe Mixon and added Stefon Diggs to go along with Dell and Nico Collins.

​Houston also added to their defense with Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry, who have a combined 146.5 sacks, and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair who played for Ryans’ defense with the San Francisco 49ers.

This is a team that has all the assets to finish the season as the AFC's number one seed. If CJ Stroud elevates his game as expected, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC could run through Houston. 

2. The Atlanta Falcons Will Have A Top Five Offense
While Houston exceeded expectations, the Atlanta Falcons have the foundation to become a juggernaut offensively. They used multiple top 10 draft picks on skill positions - Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson - who all showed potential but were held back by suspect coaching and mediocre quarterback play. 

However, there are two components that should change this. The first is hiring Los Angeles Rams’ defensive coordinator Raheem Morris as head coach. Although he comes from the defensive side, Morris brings in fellow offensive assistants from Sean McVay’s decorated system. The second is signing pro bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. Cousins has always been a steady passer and was in the midst of a career year for the Minnesota Vikings before tearing his ACL in week eight.

If he recovers, the Falcons could have something special. Only four quarterbacks have a higher all-time completion percentage with at least 1,500 pass attempts than Cousins. He is especially known to heavily target his best offensive weapons, which should certainly benefit both London and Pitts. 
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Meanwhile, Robinson’s effectiveness in a zone-schemed offense bodes well in a system that once revolutionized football with various zone-running concepts. A strong offensive line anchored by center Drew Dalman and guard Chris Lindstorm will additionally provide many rushing lanes for Robinson along with time for Cousins in the pocket. 
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3. Kyle Hamilton Will Win Defensive Player of the Year
According to most experts, Kyle Hamilton of the Baltimore Ravens is arguably the best safety going into 2024. Although he earned this reputation in his second year, odds of winning Defensive Player of the Year aren’t in Hamilton’s favor. Only five players at the position have ever won the award. 

However, it is fitting that Hamilton’s play style resembles the last safety to win the award, Troy Polamalu. Like Polamalu, Hamilton excels wherever he lines up whether it’s at safety, slot cornerback, or linebacker. According to Pro Football Focus, Hamilton lined up at safety 390 times, slot cornerback 465 times, and linebacker 205 times. He stuffed the stat sheet with 81 tackles, three sacks, 13 pass deflections which led all safeties, and four interceptions with one going for a touchdown. Hamilton’s versatility resulted in a pro bowl and first team all-pro selection.

“When you have a player like Kyle Hamilton, who does so many things so well, you want to get him in position to do all of those things,” head coach John Harbaugh said. 

More importantly, Hamilton played a major role on a Ravens team that had the AFC’s best record. His breakout season was a huge reason why Baltimore’s defense allowed the fewest points in football. It’s rare for a safety to be a difference maker at multiple positions and with the Ravens primed to make another huge playoff run, it’s possible a safety finally wins the award. 

4. The 49ers and Rams Will Meet in a NFC Championship Game 
Despite the San Francisco 49ers narrowly losing the Super Bowl and the Rams making the playoffs, there wasn’t much drama to the rivalry compared to other seasons. 

However, an encore of the 2021 NFC Championship game which ended in a 20-17 Rams’ victory could be on the table. 

The 49ers will be hungry to finish the job and they have the talent to get back to the big game. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan oversees a talented offense featuring an efficient passing game with Brock Purdy, and a top ranked rushing attack led by Christian McCaffrey. 

Defensively, Nick Bosa is a scary sight for any quarterback while Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are as good of a linebacking duo as there is in the NFL. Chavarius Ward can match up against any number one receiver and a healthy Talanoa Hufanga will be valuable for the secondary. 

Meanwhile, the Rams enjoyed a resurgent season after experiencing a let down following their Super Bowl 56 win. Sean McVay’s passing attack was revitalized thanks to a fully healthy Matthew Stafford and the emergence of fifth round receiver Puka Nacua. Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp showed he was still capable of making an impact, and they also got a boost in the running game with Kyren Williams finishing third in rushing yards. 

While another championship meeting would feature new characters such as Purdy, McCaffrey, and Nacua, the stakes wouldn’t change. It would still produce a highly competitive and intense game between two old rivals.