The NFL playoffs begin this Saturday and the biggest question will be whether the Kansas City Chiefs go for a three-peat. After winning back-to-back Super Bowls, Kansas City looks destined to win the big game again, clinching home field advantage in the AFC with a 15-2 record. Their primary AFC challengers remain the same as the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are right behind them in the standings.
In the NFC is where it gets interesting. The Detroit Lions were the class of the conference with a 15-2 record of their own. Their division features two other strong teams in the Vikings and Packers. Meanwhile, the Eagles managed to put last year's collapse behind them en route to a 14-win campaign. Other teams like the Rams look like a dark horse Super Bowl contender. Here are my playoff predictions. AFC Wildcard: #2 Bills over #7 Broncos The Bills are flying high and that is due to Josh Allen who is playing some of his most efficient, if not the best football of his career. They are going to be one step ahead of Denver the entire game. The Broncos' offense with rookie QB Bo Nix will be competitive, but an MVP-type performance from Allen seems likely. #3 Ravens over #6 Steelers It has been a December to remember for the Ravens as they won their last four to clinch the AFC North. They will keep up their momentum against a struggling Pittsburgh team who they beat three weeks ago. Lamar Jackson might have some hiccups but Derrick Henry will likely get lots of carries for plenty of yards. The defense will also contain Pittsburgh's dormant offense. #5 Chargers over #4 Texans The Chargers' successful turnaround season will continue in the playoff opener against the Texans. As much as Houston has struggled recently, I think they will actually put up a better fight than expected. However, the Chargers know how to play together under Jim Harbaugh. They won't make many mistakes like past teams, and Justin Herbert will notch his first playoff win. Divisional #1 Chiefs over #5 Chargers This is unfortunately where the Chargers' season will end. The Chiefs' team that needed the field goal bouncing off the uprights to win their last meeting, has played much better since. Patrick Mahomes has been the catalyst of an offense that's played very productive as of late. With Andy Reid fresh off a bye, their offense is in for a big day. #3 Ravens over #2 Bills I see Baltimore running a ball-control offense to keep Allen and co. off the field for extended periods of time. Jackson will be better through the air than the Steeler game, but Henry is going to add to his impressive playoff resume. Allen will put up a fight, but if the Ravens' streaky secondary plays like the talented unit it is, he won't have much help. Championship #3 Ravens over #1 Chiefs I'm very cautious of picking against the Chiefs, but I believe Baltimore can win based on how their offense looks now compared to the first meeting. Both Henry and Mark Andrews were under utilized but have since emerged as major focal points of the Ravens' offense. Their impact will make a significant difference. The Baltimore's defense will contain Mahomes just enough in the end to win. NFC Wildcard #2 Eagles over #7 Packers The Eagles are on a mission after last year's disastrous ending and the next step will take place against Green Bay. Their offense led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley won't be overpowering, but they will do just enough. Philadelphia's defense will be the difference. They're much improved from the last time they faced the Packers, which is bad news for Jordan Love. #6 Commanders over #3 Buccaneers This game is going to be a shootout between Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield. Both offenses can be unstoppable, but I see Daniels emerging victorious. He is bound to have more support from the defense and running game after single handily carrying Washington in the last two games he started and finished. Washington wins their first playoff game since 2005. #5 Vikings over #4 Rams The Vikings are going to pull this out in what might be a sloppy game. Their defense hasn't played its best football recently and going against a solid Rams' offense won't do them any favors. However, Sam Darnold has heard lots of criticism and he'll take his frustration out on the Rams. Los Angeles has had an unfortunate week having to relocate due to the fires. They'll play hard, but this is Darnold's game to lose. Divisional Round #1 Lions over #6 Commanders Detroit's high-powered offense will be too much for the Commanders. Jared Goff will feed receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams with plenty of targets against a flawed secondary. What makes Detroit's offense so potent is their ability to target their opponent's weakness. In this game, the passing offense will lead them to victory. #5 Vikings over #2 Eagles The Vikings will beat the Eagles in a game that I don't think will be that close. The Eagles may be talented, but they don't have the coaching Minnesota does. Kevin O'Connell will thoroughly out-coach Nick Sirianni, while Justin Jefferson has his way with a promising but young secondary. The defense will also force the Eagles to throw the ball a ton which isn't their strength. Championship #1 Lions over #5 Vikings For the third time this season, Detroit will emerge victorious against Minnesota. It won't be a blowout like the final week, but it also won't come down to the wire like week 7. Minnesota might start out strong but I see the Lions seizing all the momentum before halftime. Dan Campbell has additionally had this date circled for a long time after blowing a 17 point lead last year. He'll make all the right decisions this time around. Super Bowl #3 Ravens over #1 Lions Like 2012, the Ravens will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in the Superdome after the final whistle. Detroit's injuries on defense will be too much for the offense to overcome, as Jackson and Henry each go over 100 yards. Aiden Hutchson will provide inspiration assuming he returns from his leg injury in October, but the Lions are missing far too many other defensive contributors. Jackson will officially shed the label of under-performing in the playoffs, and give Baltimore its third championship. Every NFL season, one division manages to distinguish itself from the other seven divisions. It may involve multiple teams with over 10 wins, or even three teams in the playoffs. This year, one division has accomplished both feats. The NFC North has ascended into football's toughest division with the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers all notching at least 10 wins. They are not only the class of the division, but of the entire NFC as all three clinched a playoff spot well before the season’s end. This is how the NFC North, with the exception of the Bears, became the division no one wants to play.
For the Detroit Lions, their journey resulted from a head coaching change, a timely trade, and great drafting. Head coach Dan Campbell took over a team that was in need of a rebuild. Dealing longtime franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff and multiple first round picks emphasized the team’s objective towards a makeover. While the early results weren’t promising, the Lions are now regarded as a Super Bowl contender four years after hiring Campbell. Thanks to his aggressive and hard-nosed approach, the Lions have set a franchise record for the most wins in a season (14) with a shot at the NFC’s one seed. Goff has particularly been a focal point of the Lions’ rebuild. He went from possibly losing his job as a starter, to leading a juggernaut offense that involves playmakers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery. This season has seen Goff unlock his true ceiling as the number one pick with career highs in almost every passing category. https://x.com/StBrownPodcast/status/1868739119788310628 While Goff may be Detroit’s most valuable player, they assembled the majority of their roster through draft picks. In almost every round, they hit on early picks such as Penei Sewell and Aiden Hutchenson, Day 2 choices in Brian Branch and Sam LaPorta, and even late round selections like St. Brown. Some of their homegrown talent can be attributed to extra draft capital the team got when they traded Stafford, but most of it is due to the organization’s tremendous talent evaluation. The Minnesota Vikings have been the most surprising team of this group. Unlike Detroit, Minnesota’s success has come through their free agents, with Sam Darnold being their most significant addition. Darnold - who was supposed to be a bridge quarterback while rookie JJ McCarthey developed - has emerged as this year’s feel-good story. After three different stops, Darnold has never looked more like the number three pick he was drafted as back in 2018. Darnold's connection with wide receiver Justin Jefferson has grown into one of the deadliest combinations. His play is a huge reason why the VIkings have overachieved with 14 wins. O'Connell especially deserves credit for Darnold's resurgence as he's solidified himself among the league's top coaches. https://x.com/NFL/status/1870981585404891470 Darnold is not the only newcomer to make a difference for Minnesota. The Vikings arguably had the best free agency with a solid portion of their contributors coming through free agency. Darnold and Jefferson have boosted Minnesota’s passing attack into one of the league’s elite, while free agent running back Aaron Jones has provided a complementary run-game. Defensively, free agents Andrew Van Ginkel and Johnathan Greenard have emerged as the newest Purple People Eaters. They’ve accounted for a combined 22 out of Minnesota’s 47 sacks in Brian Floras’ blitz-heavy scheme. Of the three teams leading the NFC North, Green Bay has remained a staple in the division. Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love have continued to build off a promising 2023 campaign. Love has continued to establish himself as Green Bay’s newest franchise quarterback after taking over for Aaron Rodgers last season. While he hasn't had a MVP caliber season like some expected, he has proceeded to keep the Packers in Super Bowl contention. His 25 touchdowns without a true number one receiver make for an efficient passing offense. However, most of Green Bay's offensive production has come through the running game, thanks to newly signed running back Josh Jacobs. The defense, which was once considered a weak link, has now turned into a brick wall. They’ve dramatically improved in both total and rushing yards allowed, along with turnovers. Both of these upgrades can be attributed to free agency. Signing running back Josh Jacobs and safety Xavier McKinney to big contracts were risky given they almost made the 2023 NFC Championship Game. I initially thought they would've been better off returning the same roster, but both of them have been gifts that keep on giving. Jacobs' power and agility are a perfect fit in LaFleur's run-heavy scheme. McKinney has helped turn Green Bay's defense into one of the stingiest units with seven interceptions. https://x.com/CoachDanCasey/status/1861110385945760167 It is highly surprising that one particular division is this good. This is the fifth straight year where three teams from the same division made the playoffs. It’s rare however that they’re all legitimate contenders. Every team’s point differential is above 120 which has never happened since the NFL’s division realignment in 2002. Winning the NFC this season will require going up North. |
Date Published
January 2025
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